Big Winners from Here?

Quick Recap from last weekend - Wrote about how entire Optics space is leading and that trend has continued. In Memory SK Hynix is up another 10% over the week. All 3 material plays mentioned are up as well especially IPX 0.00%↑ is up about 15% (Posted in the chat as well). Defense is still setting up but the current Iran conflict could move all the defense names higher over the week.

I will go over a couple of other names that look interesting here and how you can play them:

NVIDIA

NVDA 0.00%↑ dropped after the massive earnings and I think its a opportunity to buy the dip. They are announcing a new chip in the GTC conference next month. This is likely going to be related to the Groq acquisition and it appears OpenAI has already committed to purchasing these chips. I think at these levels especially with the strong earnings its at a good level to buy.

I think the market is likely looking at this as just a new chip but the it could be something much more and that is not yet priced in. Read this and this stacks for more info. The TLDR version is market is pricing inference to be more an ASIC thing and Nvidia limited to mostly training but this new chip could change that belief.

Also from the article:

“Typically, Nvidia has paired its Vera chips, which are central processing units, or CPUs, with its Rubin GPUs in powerful data center servers, but some large customers have found that certain agentic AI workloads can be run more efficiently on CPUs alone.

This month, Nvidia announced an expanded partnership with Meta Platforms that included the first-ever significant CPU-only deployment to support Meta’s ad-targeting AI agents. The deal offered an early window into Nvidia’s strategy to look beyond the GPU to lock up pockets of the AI market.”

This is bullish for AMD 0.00%↑ and INTC 0.00%↑ as well. CPU demand will only get stronger from here.

I am planning to play Nvidia using short puts/risk reversal. Thinking of the March 20 165P for 350-400 credit or April 17 160P for 500 credit. Will pick up a few $200 June calls as well using the credit received from the put sales.

If this thesis pans out them Hybrid Bonding players become more important. And more demand for LITE 0.00%↑

$BESI - Hybrid Bonding Play, have some and planning to pick up more on Monday.

Applied Optoelectronics

AAOI 0.00%↑ completely rerated after very strong Q1 2026 revenue guidance ($150M–$165M), and high demand for AI-driven 800G optical transceivers. The company is ramping up production for major datacenter customers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, targeting substantial growth through 2027. As you can tell from the price action this completely changed the story. Even after this massive move it looks pretty good and can go much higher. I bought some at open yesterday but thinking will add a risk reversal here. Think of this as a mini LITE that is just getting started.

LITE 0.00%↑ will do about 5B in revenue in 2027 and is worth $50B and AAOI 0.00%↑ is also expected to do the same revenue and is worth $5B.

If you want to play it conservative - Sell to open 3 April 65P and buy 1 115 Call. You will get paid to put this on and will need to take assignment at 65 if price dips below that.

Some Trade Ideas:

AVGO 0.00%↑ - It appears the stock is done bottoming. They also shipped the first AI 3.5D XDSiP. Will look to accumulate here with ~314 as stop. Its possible Google realizes and gives more TPU orders to AVGO over MediaTek.

Like ONDS 0.00%↑ at these levels for a trade. Stop at ~$9.6. Have about a small 10K position. Will add to it on Monday if it looks good.

GFS 0.00%↑ Adding this to Long Term Portfolio. In February 2026, they noted that their silicon photonics segment doubled to over $200 million in 2025, with guidance to double again in 2026. Management has mapped out a trajectory to hit a $1 billion run-rate in photonics by 2028.

TSEM 0.00%↑ is a near monopoly in this space. Increasing size here after the sell off. Its been building this base for almost 3 months now and could re-rate higher.

DCO 0.00%↑ Defense name that I like given the recent attacks on Iran. There will be a need to replenish missiles. On the recent call they mentioned that the Department of Defense is significantly ramping up production for key interceptors and they also have 30% additional capacity atleast to absorb new orders. So this will likely eliminate the need for new real estate and CAPEX leading to better financial outcomes. Will be adding to LT Port.

To summarize - Top Ideas are NVDA 0.00%↑ , AAOI 0.00%↑

Adds to LT: BESI, GFS, DCO, TSEM

Trades: ONDS, AVGO